So, the first quarter of 2025 has proven to be a bit of a wild ride… Not that wild, I’d argue, compared to some of the things I’ve seen over the course of my career (one of the few benefits of getting older). But still — unsettling is probably the best word for it.

Markets have been incredibly kind over the past couple of years, so the question many people are asking is: “Is what we’re seeing now still within the bounds of normal?”

So far, the answer is yes. The correction — if you can even call it that — has been mild. There’s a good case to say there’s nothing much to see here. If this is it, it won’t even rate a mention in my career highlights.

But… I don’t think this is it.

Here’s why:

1. Trump
I think the market is underestimating the extent of the regime change. People love to “anchor” to the past — and the market is no different. But this time around, Trump is more prepared. He’s 78, and this is his legacy play. He has nothing to lose. He’s still a wild card — erratic, unpredictable — and while markets hope his advisers will contain him, I’m not certain they can.

2. Tariffs and tangled global linkages
The world is deeply interconnected — pull one lever and there’s often an unintended consequence somewhere else. I’m not sure anyone really has a grip on how it could all play out.

3. Consumer behaviour
Sentiment in the US is falling — fast. And with around 65–70% of any economy driven by consumption, that’s no small thing. When people feel nervous, they stop spending. And that’s not good for anyone.

4. Inflation risk
Plenty of the policy changes on the table look like they could lead to a more inflationary environment. Which means interest rates may not fall as quickly — or as much — as markets are hoping.

All of this adds up to one thing: more uncertainty. Don’t get me wrong, the future is always uncertain — but the last few months have turned up the dial. Markets don’t typically perform well in highly uncertain environments, so I think it’s unlikely we’ll see strong returns in the short term.

Given that view, I’ve been advising my clients to take a little bit of money off the table. There’s no need to panic — but it’s a good opportunity to trim portfolios where it makes sense.

And before anyone clutches their pearls and starts asking, “Doesn’t she know family money is long-term money?” — the answer is yes, I do.

But I also know the difference between strategy and tactics.

Long-term strategy matters. Always. But sometimes, the right short-term tactic gives us the flexibility we need to navigate what’s next. Taking some money off the table doesn’t mean abandoning the plan — it means making room to wait and watch.

We’ve been targeting index exposures, which are easy to put back on if the call proves to be wrong.

None of us can predict the future. I’m no exception to that rule. But in a more uncertain world, being thoughtful, responsive and balanced — combining strategy and tactics — can make all the difference.

p.s I know finance can be a serious business — but sometimes, humour says it best. This John Mulaney clip is a favourite of mine, and it feels oddly perfect for the world we’re navigating right now.

Kind regards,

Shelley Marsh
Outsourced Chief Investment Officer (OCIO) & Founder
Wealth Differently

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